Exclusive polling a week before the election has Schmitt headed to the U.S. Senate

Published: Nov. 2, 2022 at 4:16 PM CDT|Updated: Nov. 2, 2022 at 6:17 PM CDT
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ST. LOUIS (KMOV) – An exclusive poll released six days before the general election shows whom Missourians favor replacing retiring U.S. Senator Roy Blunt.

The SurveyUSA poll has Republican Eric Schmitt defeating Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine 50% to 41% for the US. Senate seat. 6% of respondents said they were still undecided. Previous SurveyUSA polling also had Schmitt winning the race.

Among the 7% of voters who said they had already cast their ballots, Busch Valentine leads 67% to 30%. Of the 70% who responded they were certain to vote, Schmitt leads 53% to 39%. Among the 23% of respondents who said they are almost certain to vote, Schmitt leads 45% to 23%.

Schmitt, who previously led among women voters, now trails Busch Valentine, but still holds the lead among men. Among voters aged 65 and older, Schmitt has the lead. Schmitt leads in most of the state, but in greater Kansas City the two candidates are tied, and in Greater St. Louis Busch Valentine is leading.

Busch Valentine leads among respondents focused on healthcare and those who said investigations into former President Donald Trump are their most important issue. Schmitt leads voters who said inflation and the economy is their top issue, those who said they are most focused on crime, and those who are most focused on immigration.

The poll also asked which issues will have the most influence on their vote for U.S. Senate. The economy and inflation were found to have the greatest influence, with 36% of respondents selecting it. Abortion ranked second with 18% of respondents, and health care was third with 8%.

When asked how much confidence the respondents had that the votes for the U.S. Senate race would be counted correctly, 40% said they had full confidence, 38% had some confidence and 15% had little confidence.

After the poll was released, Schmitt for Senate Spokesperson Rich Chrismer told News 4, “This is the latest poll showing Missourians want a U.S. Senator who can empathize with the struggles many are facing in the Biden economy. Missouri voters are rejecting the entitled and out-of-touch Heiress Trudy Busch Valentine and her lies because they know she will be a rubber stamp for the Biden agenda.”

In a statement for this article, a spokesperson for Valentine alleges Schmitt dodged the idea of having a debate prior to the election.

“Eric Schmitt never engaged in a meaningful discussion on a debate and then dodged the only debate held in the campaign in which every candidate participated,” the spokesperson said. “Unfortunately for Eric Schmitt, this race is not over and this campaign remains committed as ever to getting our message out to Missourians and making clear the choice before them between an extreme, anti-choice career politician who sold us out to China and a nurse and mother, who is dedicated to putting politics as usual aside and putting people first. Trudy is the only candidate in this race who can truly say she will be nobody’s Senator but yours.”

About the Poll

From Oct. 27 through Nov. 1, SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 Missouri adults online using a sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 991 were identified as being registered to vote, and of those 791 were determined to be likely to vote or to have already their ballot in the Nov. 8 general election and were asked the survey questions.

The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.

The poll was conducted exclusively for Gray Television’s Missouri stations (KMOV-TV in St. Louis, KCTV-TV in Kansas City, KYTV-TV in Springfield, KFVS-TV in Cape Girardeau, WGEM-TV in Quincy, IL; and KYOU-TV in Ottumwa, IA), and for KRCG-TV in Jefferson City and KOAM-TV in Pittsburg, KS.