Exclusive polling has Schmitt, Valentine squaring off to replace U.S. Senator Blunt

Updated: Jul. 28, 2022 at 6:00 PM CDT
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ST. LOUIS (KMOV) – Polling conducted a week before the Missouri primary has Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt and Trudy Busch Valentine as the top picks to square off in November to replace outgoing United States Senator Roy Blunt.

The SurveyUSA poll released Thursday has Schmitt taking 28% of the vote, former Missouri Governor Eric Greitens taking 20%, Vicky Hartzler taking 13% and Billy Long having 8%. Of those surveyed, 21% stated they were still undecided about the race.

In St. Louis, Schmitt leads Greitens by 17 points. In Kansas City, Schmitt leads with 14 points. Greitens leads Schmitt by 10 points in Southeastern Missouri.

Former President Donald Trump has not yet endorsed a candidate in the race, but 44% of likely voters in the Republican primary polled said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate he endorses.

In the Democratic primary polling, Trudy Busch Valentine takes 40% of the vote and Lucas Kunce takes 14%. In that race, 28% of those polled are undecided.

Of those pulled in both the Republican and Democrat primaries, 66% said viable candidates for office should be required to participate in public debates. If a candidate doesn’t debate, 62% of likely voters said that makes them less likely to vote for them.

November General Election

Looking ahead to the November general election for the United States Senate seat SurveyUSA asked those polled how they would likely vote in several hypothetical matchups. The matchups also included former US Attorney and Jan. 6 Committee Investigative John Wood, who is running as an independent.

If Trudy Bush Valentine is the Democratic nominee, the polling found:

  • Eric Schmitt 36%, Valentine 30%, Wood 9%. 6% would look to another third-party candidate; 18% are undecided.
  • Vicky Hartzler 32%, Valentine 31%, Wood 9%. 7% would vote for someone else; 21% are undecided.
  • Eric Greitens 31%, Valentine 31%, Wood 10%. 8% vote for someone else; 20% are undecided.

If Lucas Kunce wins the Democratic nomination:

  • Eric Schmitt 37%, Kunce 27%, Wood 10%. 6% vote for another candidate; 20% are undecided.
  • Vicky Hartzler 34%, Kunce 25%, Wood 12%. 9% vote for someone else; 20% are undecided.
  • Eric Greitens 31%, Kunce 26%, Wood 13%. 10% vote for someone else; 21% are undecided.

About the Poll

SurveyUSA conducted polling exclusively for Gray Television’s Missouri stations (KMOV-TV in St. Louis, KCTV-TV in Kansas City, KYTV-TV in Springfield, KFVS-TV in Cape Girardeau, WGEM-TV in Quincy, IL; KYOU-TV in Ottumwa, IA) and for KRCG-TV in Jefferson City and KOAM-TV in Pittsburg, KS.

The survey was conducted by interviewing 2,400 Missouri adults online from 07/24/22 through 07/27/22. Of those adults, 1,981 were identified as being registered to vote, of which 787 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the Republican primary and 547 were determined to be likely to vote in the Democratic primary. Among those interviewed, 1,591 were determined likely to vote in the November general election.

The survey pool was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership, according to SurveyUSA.