Well, it looks like some wet weather is headed this way for the weekend. The big question is what type of wet weather? Rain, Snow, Freezing rain or sleet (what about all of the above)?
It's too early to have that kind of confidence in the forecast models to pinpoint a precipitation type and timing. Sometimes when you're looking at a storm forecast like this and it's several days away, you focus more on the track of the Low pressure, the positioning of the front, if ample moisture is available, where the freezing line is located and you pay less attention to the exact precipitation type and timing. Keeping an eye on rain or snow in the forecast projections is very important. However, when we are 5 to 6 days away from the storm hitting, we know the forecast can switch on us and switch drastically. So, we try to give viewers the earliest heads up possible on a "potential" wintery storm system. That's the situation we find ourselves in Tuesday looking ahead to a Saturday into Sunday storm.
Today's models are showing a situation that looks more and more like mainly rain for this event. Keep in mind that yesterday (Monday) one model was showing all snow with significant accumulations. We didn't mention that on the air because there's no need to panic over an extended forecast that can (and did) change drastically. I wouldn't rule out a brief mix of rain, freezing rain and/or sleet on Saturday. But it looks like strong winds will push in above freezing air, keeping us on the rain side of this storm. As the cold air moves in on Sunday afternoon, the moisture is just leaving. I still think we could see some rain to snow/flurries on Sunday afternoon with little to no accumulation.
As I said, these forecasts can and do change, so watch for updates both here online and on News4.