Tuesday evening in the Storm Center and Steve Templeton and I are going over the latest Super Predictor output. If you saw my weathercast at 5:00 today you may recall that I mentioned that we will be watching the track and timing of this next system very carefully. The models have consistently produced a swath of heavy rain across our area. Some areas could see up to 5 inches of rain and that seems reasonable. But with each new computer model run the swath of heaviest rain has been relocated farther north. We could still see a couple of inches of rain in and around St. Louis but now it appears the heaviest rain could fall well north of metropolitan St. Louis.
So what about timing? I think we'll see a few showers in the morning but things really start to get rolling in the afternoon and evening. Earlier this week we were thinking that we could see a threat of severe storms with this system but now I think that threat has diminished. Although flooding may be an issue.
Locally heavy rain in St. Louis won't have much of an impact on the Mississippi but since the heaviest rain will fall to our north we may see the elevated levels here persist a little longer. The river was expected to crest just above flood in St. Louis this evening.
Locally heavy rain could cause additional flooding along the Meramec so we will be watching that very closely in the coming days.
The weekend is looking okay. The models have been a little inconsistent but as of now it looks like a chance of rain on Saturday and drier weather on Sunday.
I find it very interesting that the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day temperature outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center continue to anticipate below normal temperatures for most of the country east of the continental divide. An unusually deep trough may take up residence over much of the U.S. over the period. We'll see how that works out.
Hey - could be worse, could be earthquakes.