These are never easy. All of us in the 4 Warn Storm Center have been pondering this holiday forecast for over a week now. Since we went to a 7-day forecast it adds just a little more pressure when we approach a holiday. Especially a warm season holiday that is so dependent on outdoor activities. So as of 4:15 Thursday afternoon here's our thinking:
A cool front that pased through St. Louis earlier this morning continues to make good progress to the south. Although we still expect this front to slow and even stall to our south, it looks like it will take MOST of the rain with it. Most, but not all. The are a few isolated storms scattered about this evening. In fact as I am writing this the alarm just went off for a Severe Thunderstorm Warning in Reynolds county, Missouri. We're forecasting a few showers this evening and overnight in and around metro St. Louis. During the day on Friday most of the rain should slide to the southeast of St. Louis. As of right now I think it is likely that the Veiled Prophet Parade will be dry. Just in case you should check in here at KMOV.com before you leave the house Friday and make sure the weather holds. Either way it's going to be a great parade so don't miss all the fun! There should be a few spotty showers in our Illinois counties during the day.
Even better news regarding the evening fireworks. I think we are going to be in good shape by then. Temperatures will be near 70 degrees and it should be dry. Enjoy!
Here's some interesting 4th of July climatology for St. Louis provided by the National Weather Service:
Coldest high temperature: 71 degrees in 1915 and 1997 Highest temperature: 102 degrees in 1990 Most rainfall: 3.03 inches in 1982
Highest temperature: 102 degrees in 1990
Most rainfall: 3.03 inches in 1982