Feldman: Analyzing Cardinals remaining schedule vs contenders - KMOV.com

Feldman: Analyzing Cardinals remaining schedule vs contenders

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The Cards are in a race with Nationals and Dodgers for the NL's best record and home field advantage through the NLCS By Jeff Gross The Cards are in a race with Nationals and Dodgers for the NL's best record and home field advantage through the NLCS By Jeff Gross
LOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 03:  Jordan Zimmermann #27 of the Washington Nationals throws a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on September 3, 2014 in Los Angeles, California.  (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images) By Stephen Dunn LOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 03: Jordan Zimmermann #27 of the Washington Nationals throws a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on September 3, 2014 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images) By Stephen Dunn

(BaseballSTL) - With 3 weeks left in the regular season, the Cards have a stranglehold on the NL Central division.  A 4.5 game lead on the Pirates and a 5 game lead on the Brewers – combined with the recent play of all those teams – leads many to believe it would taking nothing but a collapse of epic proportions for the Cardinals to need the wild card to receive an October invite.

So, for now, the focus has to be on catching the Dodgers and Nationals for the best record in the National League.  If not both, at least one of them so the Cards can at least have home field advantage in the division series.

Let’s take a look at all 3 teams’ remaining schedules over the final few weeks:

Cardinals:

@ Cincinnati (4 games)                    

vs Colorado (3 games)         

vs Milwaukee (3 games)   

vs Cincinnati (3 games)       

@ Chicago (3 games)          

@ Arizona (3 games)           

The combined winning percentage for all of those opponents (weighted for how many times the Cardinals play each of them) is .455.  That is the easiest remaining schedule of the 3 division leaders.

Nationals:

vs Atlanta (3 games)     

@ NY Mets (4 games)   

@ Atlanta (3 games)

@ Miami (4 games)         

vs NY Mets (3 games)

vs Miami (4 games)

The combined winning percentage for all of those opponents (weighted for how many times the Nationals play each of them) is .493.  That is the hardest remaining schedule among the 3 division leaders.

Dodgers:

vs San Diego (3 games)             

@ San Francisco (3 games)       

@ Colorado (3 games)               

@ Chicago (4 games)                  

vs San Francisco (3 games)

vs Colorado (3 games)

The combined winning percentage for all of those opponents (weighted for how many time the Dodgers play each of them) is .470.  That is harder than the Cardinals but easier than the Nationals.

Keep a very close eye on this race because, as we’ve seen over the last few years, whoever has home field advantage in October goes a long way in determining who has an edge for that particular postseason series.  The Cardinals benefited from it all the way up until the World Series a year ago. 

Who will benefit from it this year?

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