Feldman: Jay the spark the Cards rely on

Feldman: Jay the spark the Cards rely on

Credit: Getty Images

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - OCTOBER 14: Jon Jay #19 of the St. Louis Cardinals hits a single scoring Pete Kozma #38 in the fourth inning during Game One of the National League Championship Series against the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park on October 14, 2012 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

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by Brian Feldman / News 4 Sports

KMOV.com

Posted on October 21, 2012 at 4:19 PM

(BaseballStL) -- Watching the Cards hit in the playoffs you can clearly see the discrepancy between how they do when they win versus how they do when they lose.

In each game they've failed to score four or five runs. It's either three or fewer...or six or more.

I don't have to tell you which ones result in wins and which ones don't.

But would it surprise you to see another pattern in what happens in wins and losses? That when lead off hitter Jon Jay gets on base regularly the Cards have (more often than not) been victorious?

In the four losses the Redbirds have sustained this postseason Jay has reached base a total of two times. One hit and one walk in four losses. That's it.

On the other hand, however, in the Cards seven wins during these playoffs Jay has reached base a total of nine times.

That shouldn't be a surprise really. It's obvious that Allen Craig, Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina and David Freese can't do everything alone. It's hard to drive runs in when no one is on base.

And, sure, those guys could get on base for each other. But it's so much easier when Jay gets things started. Beltran isn't built to be a table setter. He's a run producer. And the same goes for Holliday, Craig and the rest.

Numbers don't lie. They can be slightly misleading at times, for sure. But in this case where the Cards clearly are reliant on their offense the numbers speak the truth.

If Jon Jay is on base, the Cards have a much higher likelihood of winning than if he's not.

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