10:10 PM CDT on Friday, June 23, 2006

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(KMOV) - We're starting to see politicians campaign for the mid-term elections, which could mark a changing of the guard in Missouri.

KMOV

News 4's Russell Kinsaul has the results of a News 4/St. Louis Post Dispatch poll that shows a potential shift in the Show-Me State.

Republican election euphoria is now just a memory.

The next vote for governor is two years away, but the Republican Party faces an uphill battle in the fall political season.

According to the News 4/Post-Disptach poll, first term Republican Governor Matt Blunt still trails democratic challenger jay Nixon.

An eight point January deficit is now 10 points in June. 

Nixon has built a 17% lead among women voters, and a 26% lead among independents. 

And he has comfortable cushions in both St. Louis city, and St. Louis County.

A tighter race is looming in the battle for the United States Senate.  GOP incumbent Jim Talent trailed democrat Claire McCaskill by a slim 3 points in January. 

Now, McCaskill's lead is six points and McCaskill's edge mirrors Nixon’s in the governor’s race. 

She leads among women by 13%, and independent voters by 14%. 

McCaskill leads big in St. Louis City, and has a 12% edge in St. Louis County.

When asked what the most important issue facing Missouri voters was, democrats said education, while republicans said avoiding tax increases.

Proposed ballot issues in the fall appear to have full support of Missouri voters. 

Medicaid restoration, stem cell research, a minimum wage proposal, and a tobacco tax hike all have huge leads in the poll.

On the issue of stem cells research, we asked Missourians specifically about archbishop Raymond Burke's efforts to influence the political debate. 

By nearly 20%, those polled disapproved. The poll was conducted earlier this week among 800 likely Missouri voters.

The margin for error is 3.5%, meaning the numbers have a 95% chance of falling within that range.

You can read expanded results of the News 4/St Louis Post-Dispatch poll on these and several other questions in Sunday’s Post-Dispatch.