Analysis

azfamily.com

ST. LOUIS, Oct. 12 -- A lot of friends, collegues and neighbors are asking who I think will win the election three weeks from Tuesday, and I don't have a guaranteed answer.

"It depends," I say. "Either of them could."

It could be very close, or it could be a blowout.

The best indicators seem to be polls, surveys which attempt to determine the public's opinion of how the candidates have performed in recent days, in relation to the confidence, fear and organizational skill the campaigns and the candidates seem to project on a daily basis - factors which influence future polls and, eventually, voting on election day.

In other words, who has the lead and the momentum?

Toss-up states include Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Indiana, Colorado and West Virginia, according to a continuing study by RealClearPolitics.com. Similar polling studies by CNN and MSNBC show a similar electoral map. That's 103 electoral votes in toss-up states.

It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Barack Obama has 211 electoral votes considered "solid" in states such as Illinois, California and New York. He could get another 66 electoral votes in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, some of the states "leaning" his way.

That would be 277 electoral votes for Obama.

Game Over.

If you believe the polls.

Will Virginia vote for a Democrat for the first time in more than 40 years?

Can Obama really count on Wisconsin and Pennsylvania?

John McCain has 143 "solid" electoral votes in Texas, Arizona and much of the South and Midwest. Another 15 electoral votes are "leaning" his way in Georgia.

That would give McCain 158 electoral votes. With 103 considered a "toss-up," McCain would have to win all eight of those states to get to 261 electoral votes, leaving him nine votes short of the White House.

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota or Virginia could push McCain over the top.

It's a tall order, but it doesn't seem impossible.

Computer science and political science students at the University of Illinois have a different opinion.

You can view their electoral map by clicking here.

Their computer model says Obama will win with at least 359 electoral votes compared with only 178 for McCain.