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La Niña is likely fading

by Steve Templeton

KMOV.com

Posted on May 17, 2011 at 8:54 PM

Updated Tuesday, May 17 at 8:55 PM

The Climate Prediction Center says La Niña is likely ending, transitioning to neutral conditions.  In an earlier blog (here) I detailed how there is indeed a connection between La Nina and the record setting tornado outbreaks this Spring. 

Now, La Niña is likely fading and while the forecast skill of the computer models isn't good enough to rely on for predicting next Winter's El Niño, La Niña or Neutral conditions, all indications are it will be neutral through the end of the year. 

However, according to the Climate Prediction Center...

"La Niña will continue to have global impacts even as the episode diminishes. Expected La Niña impacts during May-July 2011 include suppressed convection over the west-central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over Indonesia. Potential La Niña impacts in the United States include an enhanced chance for below-average precipitation across southeastern Texas and Louisiana, and an increased chance of below-average temperatures for the Pacific Northwest (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on April 21st, 2011)."

Furthermore, Don't be fooled when it comes to hurricanes and La Niña or neutral conditions.  While La Niña is usually correlated to a busy Atlantic Hurricane season, it just isn't always the case.  The 2005 Atlantic season set records (28 named storms, 15 hurricanes) and it was a neutral period. 

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