Updated Wednesday 12/21/11
I don't see a White Christmas for this year, sorry to say. Of course, if you're traveling "over the river and through the woods"...this is probably great news.
Not only are the storm systems missing us for Christmas, but the bitter cold air is missing us as well.
In fact, today's forecast models are showing a brief cold snap hitting Friday into Saturday morning which is earlier on the timing compared to our forecasts a couple days ago. What does this mean? Not as chilly for Christmas.
I have a low of 29 Sunday morning (cold but above the normal of 25) and a high of 45 (above the normal of 40). Dry and partly cloudy should make travel just perfect.
Also, I looked ahead in the extended forecast and I don't see any big storms for the next 7 to 10 days. I'll keep you posted if I see any changes.
Updated Monday 12/19/11
It still looks like a long shot for a white Christmas. The only chance I see is some light rain or snow Friday evening, turning to light snow or flurries Saturday morning. At this point I expect mainly flurries and no accumulation. But let's say we get a dusting, it would likely melt in most spots with a high Saturday (Christmas Eve) of 39. So...by Christmas there wouldn't be much of anything, and that's if we get a dusting from Saturday morning. Like I said, it's a long shot.
We do have a re-reinforcing shot of cold air arriving Sunday (Christmas) and sometimes this produces flurries. But it just looks too dry for that right now.
What you do need to know is that it will be cold and the forecast has trended colder. So while we bask in the 50s today (not exactly basking weather, but hey...it's mild for December), it will get down to our typical cold temperatures for Christmas. I have a Christmas morning low of 25 and a high of 39 with partly cloudy skies.
I'll keep updating this blog throughout the week.
Updated Sunday 12/18/11
We're a week out and our chances of a white Christmas are slim to none. We've been stuck in a warm pattern and despite storm systems rolling through, it's all been rain. By late this week we start to get colder and one forecast model is showing enough moisture for some light snow Friday night into Saturday morning. This model has been inconsistent as it showed this as rain/snow on Saturday in earlier runs. I'll look for more consistency before we can get excited about a chance for some snow, even if it is light.
However, if we get some light snow Friday night it would likely melt on Saturday and Sunday. So when I say "Slim" to none, the "Slim" is if we get some snow Friday night and if some of it can last until Sunday. But with a week to go, we can still see changes in the forecast so stay tuned.
Last year we had 3.3" on Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. How perfect was that! But historically we have about a 20% chance of a white Christmas.