We're stuck in a repeat pattern. In essence it's warm up....rain hits....big cool down. Last week we went from 80s to 50s for highs in one day. This week we went from 70s to near 50 for the high in one day. And next week it will be mild in the 60s to near 70 before the rain hits and next thing you know we'll have highs in the 50s.
Here's an image of the GFS model with previous 12 hour precipitation forecast and you can see the Low positioned in Southeast Missouri. The position of this low will likely change as we get closer to the event and that subtle change will push the heaviest rain North or South depending on the path of the Low. But the pattern is similar to the past couple of weeks as the Low pulls out of the Southwest, zips to the Northeast and drags a cold front through St. Louis.
We'll keep you posted on the forecast changes, but Monday and Tuesday look like we'll have rain and possibly some storms.