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Does This Cold October Mean A Cold Winter?

by Steve Templeton

KMOV.com

Posted on October 16, 2009 at 8:34 PM

Updated Wednesday, Nov 4 at 3:29 PM


This is the 2nd coldest start to October on record in St. Louis (Oct. 1st - Oct. 15th), and I've heard a few people ask if this means we're in for a harsh Winter?

While this cold snap is small in the big scheme of things and certainly won't be the determining factor in our winter temperatures, it is fun and interesting to look back in the history books and see if a cold start to October equates to a cold winter.

Since this year is one of the top 10 coldest starts to October, I looked at the other 9 years and checked the average winter temperature that followed...

8 of the 9 coldest starts to October in St. Louis were followed by colder than normal winter temperatures. While I won't base a forecast simply on a historical trend, it is interesting to look back and see a distinct trend.

The Climate Prediction Center has the St. Louis area forecasted for equal chances of colder or warmer than normal, plus a near normal to drier than normal Winter.

We'll keep you posted on changes to the winter outlook, but the good news is we're heading back to the warmer 60s next week!

Steve Templeton

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